Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “double bubble” and will see two price tops this year, fresh data suggests.
In a tweet on Aug. 18, Charles Edwards, CEO of investment firm Capriole, highlighted 2021 as having one key similarity to the 2013 double top bull cycle.
Bitcoin gears up for second peak
Bitcoin has divided opinion over whether its 2021 bull run is more like 2013 or 2017 — the other two years which immediately followed block subsidy halving events.
Looking at one metric, unrealized profit and loss (UP&L), the answer may be simple. According to Edwards, only 2013 has produced similar results for coin profitability.
“New evidence for a Bitcoin double bubble,” he summarized.
“In prior cycle tops, bounces were never able to hold unrealized profit and loss above 0.5. Only the 2013 double bubble and today have achieved this.”
Bitcoin unrealized profit and loss annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter
Such a perspective further accommodates the popular stock-to-flow price model, which demands an average BTC/USD reading of $100,000 or more this year. Its creator, PlanB, previously gave an end-of-year minimum of $135,000 as a “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin.
Double bubble?
The findings are not the only ones arriving at the “double bubble” conclusion.
Related: No, Bitcoin isn’t entering a 2018-like bear cycle, new data suggests, as BTC targets $45K
Dedicated monitoring tool the Bitcoin Bubble Index likewise depicts a two-phase price peak this year.
For context, the Bubble Index hit its all-time high of 119 on April 14, the time that BTC/USD reached its current all-time high of $64,500. Currently, it measures 110, almost the same as the top, with Bitcoin sitting at $44,500.
Bitcoin Bubble Index vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt
In May, as Bitcoin was on its way to local lows of $29,000, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode likewise pointed to this year mimicking 2013.
